Baidu Inc ADR (BIDU) is overvalued and Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. BIDU is the closer of the two: -26%, against -71% for SPOT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.1% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $73.52; the price of $92.43 is 26% above that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 12.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $292.81; the price of $501.30 is 71% above that value, and 67% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | BIDU | SPOT |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $92.43 | $501.30 |
| Intrinsic value | $73.52 | $292.81 |
| Margin of safety | -26% | -71% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (2/12) | 59/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $25.5B | $103.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 3.0% | 16.6% |
| Operating margin | 7.0% | 14.6% |
| Net margin | -3.4% | 18.4% |
| Return on equity | -1.6% | 44.9% |
| Debt to equity | 0.42 | 0.06 |
| P/E | — | 31.2x |
| Forward P/E | 13.2x | 28.5x |
| P/B | 0.8x | 10.8x |
| Dividend yield | 1.9% | — |