BHP Group Limited ADR (BHP) is slightly overvalued and Vale SA ADR (VALE) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, VALE trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +44%, against -7% for BHP.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $81.76; the price of $87.83 is 7% above that value, and 76% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $25.51; the price of $14.19 is 44% below that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | BHP | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $87.83 | $14.19 |
| Intrinsic value | $81.76 | $25.51 |
| Margin of safety | -7% | +44% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (3/12) | 56/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $223.2B | $57.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 0.7% | -0.9% |
| Operating margin | 39.1% | 28.3% |
| Net margin | 16.7% | 4.9% |
| Return on equity | 20.0% | 5.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| P/E | 22.7x | 29.9x |
| Forward P/E | 18.0x | 7.7x |
| P/B | 4.4x | 1.6x |
| Dividend yield | 3.4% | 7.1% |