BHP Group Limited ADR (BHP) is slightly overvalued and Rio Tinto plc ADR (RIO) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, RIO trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +37%, against -7% for BHP.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $81.76; the price of $87.83 is 7% above that value, and 76% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $153.66; the price of $97.49 is 37% below that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | BHP | RIO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $87.83 | $97.49 |
| Intrinsic value | $81.76 | $153.66 |
| Margin of safety | -7% | +37% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (3/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $223.2B | $122.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 0.7% | 5.1% |
| Operating margin | 39.1% | 26.7% |
| Net margin | 16.7% | 19.6% |
| Return on equity | 20.0% | 19.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.53 | 0.35 |
| P/E | 22.7x | 13.2x |
| Forward P/E | 18.0x | 11.8x |
| P/B | 4.4x | 2.4x |
| Dividend yield | 3.4% | 5.1% |