BHP Group Limited ADR (BHP) is slightly overvalued and MP Materials Corp (MP) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. BHP is the closer of the two: -7%, against -1881% for MP.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $81.76; the price of $87.83 is 7% above that value, and 76% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
A 0.9x revenue multiple, discounted for its losses, values the shares at $2.58; the price of $51.04 is 1881% above that value.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | BHP | MP |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $87.83 | $51.04 |
| Intrinsic value | $81.76 | $2.58 |
| Margin of safety | -7% | -1881% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (3/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $223.2B | $9.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 0.7% | 15.4% |
| Operating margin | 39.1% | -16.7% |
| Net margin | 16.7% | -14.6% |
| Return on equity | 20.0% | -3.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.53 | 0.40 |
| P/E | 22.7x | — |
| Forward P/E | 18.0x | 62.9x |
| P/B | 4.4x | 4.6x |
| Dividend yield | 3.4% | — |