Brink's Co (BCO) is undervalued and Geo Group Inc (GEO) is slightly overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, BCO trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +22%, against -11% for GEO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $137.63; the price of $107.12 is 22% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 41/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $26.84; the price of $29.74 is 11% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 43/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | BCO | GEO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $107.12 | $29.74 |
| Intrinsic value | $137.63 | $26.84 |
| Margin of safety | +22% | -11% |
| Leak Score | 41/100 (3/12) | 43/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $4.4B | $3.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.3% | 2.3% |
| Operating margin | 10.4% | 12.5% |
| Net margin | 3.3% | 10.3% |
| Return on equity | 64.1% | 20.1% |
| Debt to equity | 14.67 | 1.08 |
| P/E | 24.8x | 14.0x |
| Forward P/E | 10.3x | 16.6x |
| P/B | 14.2x | 2.6x |
| Dividend yield | 1.0% | — |