Brink's Co (BCO) is undervalued and CoreCivic Inc (CXW) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, BCO trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +22%, against -39% for CXW.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $137.63; the price of $107.12 is 22% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 41/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $22.58; the price of $31.47 is 39% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | BCO | CXW |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $107.12 | $31.47 |
| Intrinsic value | $137.63 | $22.58 |
| Margin of safety | +22% | -39% |
| Leak Score | 41/100 (3/12) | 14/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $4.4B | $3.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.3% | 3.0% |
| Operating margin | 10.4% | 9.9% |
| Net margin | 3.3% | 5.2% |
| Return on equity | 64.1% | 8.8% |
| Debt to equity | 14.67 | 0.94 |
| P/E | 24.8x | 25.1x |
| Forward P/E | 10.3x | 12.9x |
| P/B | 14.2x | 2.2x |
| Dividend yield | 1.0% | — |