Ball Corp (BALL) is overvalued and Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. BALL is the closer of the two: -20%, against -27% for SW.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $49.92; the price of $59.97 is 20% above that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $36.68; the price of $46.45 is 27% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | BALL | SW |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $59.97 | $46.45 |
| Intrinsic value | $49.92 | $36.68 |
| Margin of safety | -20% | -27% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $15.9B | $24.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.3% | 26.2% |
| Operating margin | 11.5% | 5.8% |
| Net margin | 6.6% | 1.6% |
| Return on equity | 17.3% | 2.7% |
| Debt to equity | 1.32 | 0.79 |
| P/E | 17.1x | 49.4x |
| Forward P/E | 13.3x | 13.3x |
| P/B | 2.8x | 1.4x |
| Dividend yield | 1.3% | 4.0% |