Ball Corp (BALL) is overvalued and Packaging Corp Of America (PKG) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. BALL is the closer of the two: -20%, against -23% for PKG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $49.92; the price of $59.97 is 20% above that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $194.36; the price of $238.23 is 23% above that value, and 76% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 38/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | BALL | PKG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $59.97 | $238.23 |
| Intrinsic value | $49.92 | $194.36 |
| Margin of safety | -20% | -23% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 38/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $15.9B | $21.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.3% | 6.2% |
| Operating margin | 11.5% | 12.6% |
| Net margin | 6.6% | 7.2% |
| Return on equity | 17.3% | 14.8% |
| Debt to equity | 1.32 | 0.94 |
| P/E | 17.1x | 31.0x |
| Forward P/E | 13.3x | 17.6x |
| P/B | 2.8x | 4.5x |
| Dividend yield | 1.3% | 2.2% |