Ball Corp (BALL) is overvalued and Crown Holdings Inc (CCK) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, CCK trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +33%, against -20% for BALL.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $49.92; the price of $59.97 is 20% above that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $163.13; the price of $109.64 is 33% below that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 70/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | BALL | CCK |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $59.97 | $109.64 |
| Intrinsic value | $49.92 | $163.13 |
| Margin of safety | -20% | +33% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 70/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $15.9B | $11.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.3% | 5.7% |
| Operating margin | 11.5% | 12.8% |
| Net margin | 6.6% | 5.9% |
| Return on equity | 17.3% | 27.2% |
| Debt to equity | 1.32 | 2.19 |
| P/E | 17.1x | 15.8x |
| Forward P/E | 13.3x | 12.1x |
| P/B | 2.8x | 4.3x |
| Dividend yield | 1.3% | 1.3% |