Alibaba Group Holding Ltd ADR (BABA) is overvalued and JD.com Inc ADR (JD) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, JD trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +15%, against -144% for BABA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $47.61; the price of $116.31 is 144% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.6% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $32.24; the price of $27.38 is 15% below that value.
Leak Score 49/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | BABA | JD |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $116.31 | $27.38 |
| Intrinsic value | $47.61 | $32.24 |
| Margin of safety | -144% | +15% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (3/12) | 49/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $289.1B | $32.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.4% | 11.0% |
| Operating margin | 4.1% | 0.2% |
| Net margin | 7.0% | 1.1% |
| Return on equity | 7.1% | 6.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.25 | 0.48 |
| P/E | 27.4x | 18.5x |
| Forward P/E | 12.7x | 6.5x |
| P/B | 1.8x | 1.2x |
| Dividend yield | 0.9% | 3.3% |