Alibaba Group Holding Ltd ADR (BABA) is overvalued and EBay Inc (EBAY) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. EBAY is the closer of the two: -78%, against -144% for BABA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $47.61; the price of $116.31 is 144% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $61.38; the price of $109.28 is 78% above that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 41/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | BABA | EBAY |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $116.31 | $109.28 |
| Intrinsic value | $47.61 | $61.38 |
| Margin of safety | -144% | -78% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (3/12) | 41/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $289.1B | $48.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.4% | 4.6% |
| Operating margin | 4.1% | 21.4% |
| Net margin | 7.0% | 18.4% |
| Return on equity | 7.1% | 46.4% |
| Debt to equity | 0.25 | 1.53 |
| P/E | 27.4x | 22.6x |
| Forward P/E | 12.7x | 16.2x |
| P/B | 1.8x | 10.4x |
| Dividend yield | 0.9% | 1.1% |