Astrazeneca plc (AZN) is slightly undervalued and Novartis AG ADR (NVS) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, AZN trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +7%, against -27% for NVS.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $180.20; the price of $168.37 is 7% below that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $111.38; the price of $141.28 is 27% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | AZN | NVS |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $168.37 | $141.28 |
| Intrinsic value | $180.20 | $111.38 |
| Margin of safety | +7% | -27% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (3/12) | 59/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $261.1B | $258.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 16.3% | 2.3% |
| Operating margin | 22.4% | 29.6% |
| Net margin | 17.0% | 23.3% |
| Return on equity | 22.0% | 30.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.64 | 1.18 |
| P/E | 25.2x | 21.3x |
| Forward P/E | 14.6x | 14.4x |
| P/B | 5.2x | 6.2x |
| Dividend yield | 2.0% | 3.1% |