Astrazeneca plc (AZN) is slightly undervalued and Lilly(Eli) & Co (LLY) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, AZN trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +7%, against -35% for LLY.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $180.20; the price of $168.37 is 7% below that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $869.22; the price of $1170.14 is 35% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 63/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | AZN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $168.37 | $1170.14 |
| Intrinsic value | $180.20 | $869.22 |
| Margin of safety | +7% | -35% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (3/12) | 63/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $261.1B | $1.10T |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 16.3% | 21.6% |
| Operating margin | 22.4% | 49.7% |
| Net margin | 17.0% | 33.5% |
| Return on equity | 22.0% | 102.4% |
| Debt to equity | 0.64 | 1.62 |
| P/E | 25.2x | 39.8x |
| Forward P/E | 14.6x | 24.9x |
| P/B | 5.2x | 32.5x |
| Dividend yield | 2.0% | 0.6% |