American Express Co (AXP) is overvalued and PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, PYPL trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +51%, against -88% for AXP.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Book value at 2.50x, the multiple a 34.1% return on equity justifies, blended with earnings, values the shares at $162.37; the price of $305.07 is 88% above that value.
Leak Score 75/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $108.56; the price of $52.89 is 51% below that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 79/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | AXP | PYPL |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $305.07 | $52.89 |
| Intrinsic value | $162.37 | $108.56 |
| Margin of safety | -88% | +51% |
| Leak Score | 75/100 (10/12) | 79/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $206.0B | $45.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 16.1% | 9.2% |
| Operating margin | 20.9% | 18.9% |
| Net margin | 13.4% | 14.3% |
| Return on equity | 34.1% | 24.5% |
| Debt to equity | 1.72 | 0.72 |
| P/E | 18.5x | 10.0x |
| Forward P/E | 15.1x | 9.1x |
| P/B | 6.0x | 2.3x |
| Dividend yield | 1.3% | 0.6% |