American Express Co (AXP) is overvalued and Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. MA is the closer of the two: -23%, against -88% for AXP.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Book value at 2.50x, the multiple a 34.1% return on equity justifies, blended with earnings, values the shares at $162.37; the price of $305.07 is 88% above that value.
Leak Score 75/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $451.02; the price of $555.89 is 23% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 70/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | AXP | MA |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $305.07 | $555.89 |
| Intrinsic value | $162.37 | $451.02 |
| Margin of safety | -88% | -23% |
| Leak Score | 75/100 (10/12) | 70/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $206.0B | $487.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 16.1% | 16.5% |
| Operating margin | 20.9% | 59.2% |
| Net margin | 13.4% | 46.3% |
| Return on equity | 34.1% | 241.5% |
| Debt to equity | 1.72 | 4.39 |
| P/E | 18.5x | 30.6x |
| Forward P/E | 15.1x | 24.1x |
| P/B | 6.0x | 87.0x |
| Dividend yield | 1.3% | 0.6% |