American States Water Co (AWR) is overvalued and H2O America (HTO) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. AWR is the closer of the two: -25%, against -42% for HTO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $67.47; the price of $84.39 is 25% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $44.37; the price of $62.92 is 42% above that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | AWR | HTO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $84.39 | $62.92 |
| Intrinsic value | $67.47 | $44.37 |
| Margin of safety | -25% | -42% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (3/12) | 14/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $3.3B | $2.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.2% | 7.2% |
| Operating margin | 31.9% | 21.5% |
| Net margin | 20.4% | 12.9% |
| Return on equity | 13.6% | 6.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| P/E | 23.1x | 22.2x |
| Forward P/E | 22.2x | 22.3x |
| P/B | 3.0x | 1.4x |
| Dividend yield | 2.5% | 2.8% |