Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd ADR (ATAT) is undervalued and Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, ATAT trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +53%, against -106% for HLT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $70.60; the price of $33.21 is 53% below that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $149.72; the price of $308.44 is 106% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 72/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | ATAT | HLT |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $33.21 | $308.44 |
| Intrinsic value | $70.60 | $149.72 |
| Margin of safety | +53% | -106% |
| Leak Score | 100/100 (3/12) | 72/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $3.7B | $69.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 43.1% | 22.7% |
| Operating margin | 21.2% | 23.4% |
| Net margin | 16.8% | 12.7% |
| Return on equity | 58.8% | — |
| Debt to equity | 0.38 | — |
| P/E | 16.4x | 45.3x |
| Forward P/E | 11.8x | 29.7x |
| P/B | 9.2x | — |
| Dividend yield | 2.5% | 0.2% |