ASML Holding NV (ASML) is overvalued and Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ONTO is the closer of the two: -36%, against -53% for ASML.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
A 10.6x revenue multiple, adjusted for growth and margin, values the shares at $1145.30; the price of $1747.90 is 53% above that value.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
A 8.8x revenue multiple, adjusted for growth and margin, values the shares at $209.23; the price of $283.81 is 36% above that value.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | ASML | ONTO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $1747.90 | $283.81 |
| Intrinsic value | $1145.30 | $209.23 |
| Margin of safety | -53% | -36% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (3/12) | 27/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $673.7B | $13.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 18.3% | 12.6% |
| Operating margin | 35.4% | 19.8% |
| Net margin | 30.1% | 11.8% |
| Return on equity | 54.4% | 6.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.09 | 0.77 |
| P/E | 54.4x | 106.2x |
| Forward P/E | 28.8x | 24.1x |
| P/B | 27.0x | 7.2x |
| Dividend yield | 0.6% | — |