Argen X SE ADR (ARGX) is overvalued and Moderna Inc (MRNA) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ARGX is the closer of the two: -27%, against -2452% for MRNA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $758.94; the price of $963.79 is 27% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Its liquidation floor, current assets minus every liability, values the shares at $7.15; the price of $182.56 is 2452% above that value.
Leak Score 29/100 on 7 of 12 signals
| Metric | ARGX | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $963.79 | $182.56 |
| Intrinsic value | $758.94 | $7.15 |
| Margin of safety | -27% | -2452% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (3/12) | 29/100 (7/12) |
| Market cap | $60.3B | $72.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 151.4% | 19.3% |
| Operating margin | 28.8% | -149.0% |
| Net margin | 32.8% | -141.4% |
| Return on equity | 23.6% | -39.0% |
| Debt to equity | 0.01 | 0.19 |
| P/E | 36.7x | — |
| Forward P/E | 25.1x | — |
| P/B | 7.1x | 10.8x |