Applovin Corp (APP) is overvalued and Trade Desk Inc (TTD) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, TTD trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +48%, against -51% for APP.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 15.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $217.75; the price of $328.73 is 51% above that value, and 59% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $25.41; the price of $13.18 is 48% below that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | APP | TTD |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $328.73 | $13.18 |
| Intrinsic value | $217.75 | $25.41 |
| Margin of safety | -51% | +48% |
| Leak Score | 56/100 (8/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $110.0B | $6.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 30.4% | 28.2% |
| Operating margin | 77.7% | 19.6% |
| Net margin | 64.6% | 13.6% |
| Return on equity | 203.7% | 15.4% |
| Debt to equity | 1.11 | 0.17 |
| P/E | 25.3x | 15.6x |
| Forward P/E | 16.4x | 53.0x |
| P/B | 34.9x | 2.4x |