Applovin Corp (APP) is overvalued and Stagwell Inc (STGW) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, STGW trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +18%, against -51% for APP.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 15.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $217.75; the price of $328.73 is 51% above that value, and 59% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $10.43; the price of $8.51 is 18% below that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 50/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | APP | STGW |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $328.73 | $8.51 |
| Intrinsic value | $217.75 | $10.43 |
| Margin of safety | -51% | +18% |
| Leak Score | 56/100 (8/12) | 50/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $110.0B | $2.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 30.4% | 26.7% |
| Operating margin | 77.7% | 4.5% |
| Net margin | 64.6% | 0.5% |
| Return on equity | 203.7% | 2.3% |
| Debt to equity | 1.11 | 2.55 |
| P/E | 25.3x | 144.2x |
| Forward P/E | 16.4x | 6.9x |
| P/B | 34.9x | 3.1x |