APi Group Corp (APG) is overvalued and Ferrovial N. V (FER) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. APG is the closer of the two: -242%, against -256% for FER.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.7% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $11.03; the price of $37.76 is 242% above that value, and 71% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $15.80; the price of $56.30 is 256% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | APG | FER |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $37.76 | $56.30 |
| Intrinsic value | $11.03 | $15.80 |
| Margin of safety | -242% | -256% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (2/12) | 14/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $16.5B | $40.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 17.1% | 7.8% |
| Operating margin | 6.4% | 10.4% |
| Net margin | -3.2% | 6.2% |
| Return on equity | 10.3% | 10.3% |
| Debt to equity | 1.09 | 1.86 |
| P/E | — | 57.6x |
| Forward P/E | 19.0x | 43.7x |
| P/B | 4.7x | 6.2x |
| Dividend yield | — | 2.0% |