Air Products & Chemicals Inc (APD) is overvalued and LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, LYB trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +14%, against -449% for APD.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Its through-the-cycle earnings (22.1% median margin), capitalised at 8.3% with no growth, values the shares at $52.43; the price of $287.86 is 449% above that value.
Leak Score 33/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.6% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $69.16; the price of $59.24 is 14% below that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 30/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | APD | LYB |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $287.86 | $59.24 |
| Intrinsic value | $52.43 | $69.16 |
| Margin of safety | -449% | +14% |
| Leak Score | 33/100 (8/12) | 30/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $64.1B | $19.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.3% | 1.7% |
| Operating margin | 24.3% | 7.8% |
| Net margin | -0.4% | -1.1% |
| Return on equity | -0.3% | -2.3% |
| Debt to equity | 1.31 | 1.33 |
| Forward P/E | 19.9x | 9.5x |
| P/B | 4.6x | 1.8x |
| Dividend yield | 2.5% | 5.3% |