Air Products & Chemicals Inc (APD) is overvalued and Ecolab Inc (ECL) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ECL is the closer of the two: -131%, against -449% for APD.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Its through-the-cycle earnings (22.1% median margin), capitalised at 8.3% with no growth, values the shares at $52.43; the price of $287.86 is 449% above that value.
Leak Score 33/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $119.68; the price of $276.22 is 131% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 52/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | APD | ECL |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $287.86 | $276.22 |
| Intrinsic value | $52.43 | $119.68 |
| Margin of safety | -449% | -131% |
| Leak Score | 33/100 (8/12) | 52/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $64.1B | $77.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.3% | 6.4% |
| Operating margin | 24.3% | 18.2% |
| Net margin | -0.4% | 12.6% |
| Return on equity | -0.3% | 21.9% |
| Debt to equity | 1.31 | 1.38 |
| P/E | — | 37.1x |
| Forward P/E | 19.9x | 29.4x |
| P/B | 4.6x | 7.7x |
| Dividend yield | 2.5% | 1.1% |