AMGEN Inc (AMGN) is slightly overvalued and Novartis AG ADR (NVS) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. AMGN is the closer of the two: -11%, against -27% for NVS.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $369.87; the price of $410.24 is 11% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 51/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $111.38; the price of $141.28 is 27% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | AMGN | NVS |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $410.24 | $141.28 |
| Intrinsic value | $369.87 | $111.38 |
| Margin of safety | -11% | -27% |
| Leak Score | 51/100 (10/12) | 59/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $221.8B | $258.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.8% | 2.3% |
| Operating margin | 33.3% | 29.6% |
| Net margin | 22.9% | 23.3% |
| Return on equity | 91.5% | 30.6% |
| Debt to equity | 4.90 | 1.18 |
| P/E | 25.5x | 21.3x |
| Forward P/E | 16.8x | 14.4x |
| P/B | 19.0x | 6.2x |
| Dividend yield | 2.5% | 3.1% |