AMGEN Inc (AMGN) is slightly overvalued and Lilly(Eli) & Co (LLY) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. AMGN is the closer of the two: -11%, against -35% for LLY.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $369.87; the price of $410.24 is 11% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 51/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $869.22; the price of $1170.14 is 35% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 63/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | AMGN | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $410.24 | $1170.14 |
| Intrinsic value | $369.87 | $869.22 |
| Margin of safety | -11% | -35% |
| Leak Score | 51/100 (10/12) | 63/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $221.8B | $1.10T |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.8% | 21.6% |
| Operating margin | 33.3% | 49.7% |
| Net margin | 22.9% | 33.5% |
| Return on equity | 91.5% | 102.4% |
| Debt to equity | 4.90 | 1.62 |
| P/E | 25.5x | 39.8x |
| Forward P/E | 16.8x | 24.9x |
| P/B | 19.0x | 32.5x |
| Dividend yield | 2.5% | 0.6% |