Amcor Plc (AMCR) is slightly undervalued and Packaging Corp Of America (PKG) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, AMCR trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +13%, against -23% for PKG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $49.91; the price of $43.24 is 13% below that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 30/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $194.36; the price of $238.23 is 23% above that value, and 76% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 38/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | AMCR | PKG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $43.24 | $238.23 |
| Intrinsic value | $49.91 | $194.36 |
| Margin of safety | +13% | -23% |
| Leak Score | 30/100 (2/12) | 38/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $20.0B | $21.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.8% | 6.2% |
| Operating margin | 8.6% | 12.6% |
| Net margin | 4.7% | 7.2% |
| Return on equity | 9.4% | 14.8% |
| Debt to equity | 1.28 | 0.94 |
| P/E | 18.1x | 31.0x |
| Forward P/E | — | 17.6x |
| P/B | 1.7x | 4.5x |
| Dividend yield | 6.0% | 2.2% |