Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) is overvalued and Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ONTO is the closer of the two: -36%, against -225% for AMAT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 12.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $145.26; the price of $472.46 is 225% above that value, and 66% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 73/100 on 10 of 12 signals
A 8.8x revenue multiple, adjusted for growth and margin, values the shares at $209.23; the price of $283.81 is 36% above that value.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | AMAT | ONTO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $472.46 | $283.81 |
| Intrinsic value | $145.26 | $209.23 |
| Margin of safety | -225% | -36% |
| Leak Score | 73/100 (10/12) | 27/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $374.9B | $13.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 10.5% | 12.6% |
| Operating margin | 31.1% | 19.8% |
| Net margin | 30.0% | 11.8% |
| Return on equity | 41.1% | 6.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.29 | 0.77 |
| P/E | 40.7x | 106.2x |
| Forward P/E | 25.2x | 24.1x |
| P/B | 14.6x | 7.2x |
| Dividend yield | 0.4% | — |