Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) is fairly valued and O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, ALSN trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +2%, against -51% for ORLY.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $118.03; the price of $115.38 is 2% below that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 30/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $56.94; the price of $85.82 is 51% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 54/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | ALSN | ORLY |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Fairly valued | Overvalued |
| Price | $115.38 | $85.82 |
| Intrinsic value | $118.03 | $56.94 |
| Margin of safety | +2% | -51% |
| Leak Score | 30/100 (3/12) | 54/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $9.5B | $69.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.7% | 8.9% |
| Operating margin | 21.4% | 19.6% |
| Net margin | 12.0% | 14.3% |
| Return on equity | 28.4% | — |
| Debt to equity | 2.14 | — |
| P/E | 18.3x | 27.3x |
| Forward P/E | 10.5x | 23.4x |
| P/B | 4.8x | — |
| Dividend yield | 1.0% | — |