Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc (ALNY) is overvalued and Moderna Inc (MRNA) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ALNY is the closer of the two: -37%, against -2452% for MRNA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $184.17; the price of $251.65 is 37% above that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 71/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Its liquidation floor, current assets minus every liability, values the shares at $7.15; the price of $182.56 is 2452% above that value.
Leak Score 29/100 on 7 of 12 signals
| Metric | ALNY | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $251.65 | $182.56 |
| Intrinsic value | $184.17 | $7.15 |
| Margin of safety | -37% | -2452% |
| Leak Score | 71/100 (9/12) | 29/100 (7/12) |
| Market cap | $33.7B | $72.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 49.8% | 19.3% |
| Operating margin | 20.8% | -149.0% |
| Net margin | 16.8% | -141.4% |
| Return on equity | 100.7% | -39.0% |
| Debt to equity | 2.21 | 0.19 |
| P/E | 42.5x | — |
| Forward P/E | 25.0x | — |
| P/B | 24.9x | 10.8x |