Almonty Industries Inc (ALM) is overvalued and MP Materials Corp (MP) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ALM is the closer of the two: -600%, against -1881% for MP.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $2.05; the price of $14.35 is 600% above that value, and 71% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
A 0.9x revenue multiple, discounted for its losses, values the shares at $2.58; the price of $51.04 is 1881% above that value.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | ALM | MP |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $14.35 | $51.04 |
| Intrinsic value | $2.05 | $2.58 |
| Margin of safety | -600% | -1881% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (3/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $4.1B | $9.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 4.5% | 15.4% |
| Operating margin | 5.3% | -16.7% |
| Net margin | 125.9% | -14.6% |
| Return on equity | 39.6% | -3.6% |
| Debt to equity | 1.48 | 0.40 |
| P/E | 58.5x | — |
| Forward P/E | 9.7x | 62.9x |
| P/B | 10.6x | 4.6x |