Allegion plc (ALLE) is slightly overvalued and Geo Group Inc (GEO) is slightly overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ALLE is the closer of the two: -9%, against -11% for GEO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $141.63; the price of $153.95 is 9% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $26.84; the price of $29.74 is 11% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 43/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | ALLE | GEO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $153.95 | $29.74 |
| Intrinsic value | $141.63 | $26.84 |
| Margin of safety | -9% | -11% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (3/12) | 43/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $13.1B | $3.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 8.4% | 2.3% |
| Operating margin | 20.8% | 12.5% |
| Net margin | 15.4% | 10.3% |
| Return on equity | 33.7% | 20.1% |
| Debt to equity | 1.05 | 1.08 |
| P/E | 20.2x | 14.0x |
| Forward P/E | 15.7x | 16.6x |
| P/B | 6.2x | 2.6x |
| Dividend yield | 1.4% | — |