Allegion plc (ALLE) is slightly overvalued and CoreCivic Inc (CXW) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ALLE is the closer of the two: -9%, against -39% for CXW.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $141.63; the price of $153.95 is 9% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $22.58; the price of $31.47 is 39% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | ALLE | CXW |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $153.95 | $31.47 |
| Intrinsic value | $141.63 | $22.58 |
| Margin of safety | -9% | -39% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (3/12) | 14/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $13.1B | $3.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 8.4% | 3.0% |
| Operating margin | 20.8% | 9.9% |
| Net margin | 15.4% | 5.2% |
| Return on equity | 33.7% | 8.8% |
| Debt to equity | 1.05 | 0.94 |
| P/E | 20.2x | 25.1x |
| Forward P/E | 15.7x | 12.9x |
| P/B | 6.2x | 2.2x |
| Dividend yield | 1.4% | — |