Arthur J. Gallagher & Co (AJG) is overvalued and Marsh (MRSH) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. MRSH is the closer of the two: -75%, against -209% for AJG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Book value at 0.70x, the multiple a 6.7% return on equity justifies, blended with earnings, values the shares at $74.47; the price of $230.45 is 209% above that value.
Leak Score 41/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Book value at 2.50x, the multiple a 25.7% return on equity justifies, blended with earnings, values the shares at $96.90; the price of $170.01 is 75% above that value.
Leak Score 48/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | AJG | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $230.45 | $170.01 |
| Intrinsic value | $74.47 | $96.90 |
| Margin of safety | -209% | -75% |
| Leak Score | 41/100 (8/12) | 48/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $59.1B | $81.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 15.3% | 9.4% |
| Operating margin | 17.1% | 24.3% |
| Net margin | 10.0% | 14.2% |
| Return on equity | 6.7% | 25.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.59 | 1.47 |
| P/E | 38.1x | 20.8x |
| Forward P/E | 15.4x | 14.9x |
| P/B | 2.5x | 5.3x |
| Dividend yield | 1.2% | 2.2% |