Arthur J. Gallagher & Co (AJG) is overvalued and Baldwin Insurance Group Inc (BWIN) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. AJG is the closer of the two: -209%, against -248% for BWIN.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Book value at 0.70x, the multiple a 6.7% return on equity justifies, blended with earnings, values the shares at $74.47; the price of $230.45 is 209% above that value.
Leak Score 41/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Book value and earnings at sector multiples values the shares at $9.18; the price of $31.95 is 248% above that value.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | AJG | BWIN |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $230.45 | $31.95 |
| Intrinsic value | $74.47 | $9.18 |
| Margin of safety | -209% | -248% |
| Leak Score | 41/100 (8/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $59.1B | $4.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 15.3% | 44.3% |
| Operating margin | 17.1% | -2.6% |
| Net margin | 10.0% | -4.7% |
| Return on equity | 6.7% | -10.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.59 | 2.90 |
| P/E | 38.1x | — |
| Forward P/E | 15.4x | 12.9x |
| P/B | 2.5x | 3.5x |
| Dividend yield | 1.2% | — |