Adecoagro SA (AGRO) is overvalued and Vital Farms Inc (VITL) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, VITL trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +61%, against -50% for AGRO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 6.8% values the shares at $7.30; the price of $10.93 is 50% above that value.
Leak Score 0/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.3% values the shares at $28.62; the price of $11.25 is 61% below that value, and 76% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 60/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | AGRO | VITL |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $10.93 | $11.25 |
| Intrinsic value | $7.30 | $28.62 |
| Margin of safety | -50% | +61% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (3/12) | 60/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $1.6B | $483M |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.1% | 28.8% |
| Operating margin | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Net margin | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Return on equity | 3.2% | 0.1% |
| Debt to equity | 1.34 | 0.38 |
| P/E | 34.2x | — |
| Forward P/E | 9.2x | 35.7x |
| P/B | 0.9x | 1.7x |
| Dividend yield | 2.0% | — |