Adecoagro SA (AGRO) is overvalued and Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, CALM trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +56%, against -50% for AGRO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 6.8% values the shares at $7.30; the price of $10.93 is 50% above that value.
Leak Score 0/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $165.29; the price of $73.13 is 56% below that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | AGRO | CALM |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $10.93 | $73.13 |
| Intrinsic value | $7.30 | $165.29 |
| Margin of safety | -50% | +56% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (3/12) | 100/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $1.6B | $3.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.1% | 16.6% |
| Operating margin | 1.9% | 11.8% |
| Net margin | 3.1% | 10.9% |
| Return on equity | 3.2% | 12.2% |
| Debt to equity | 1.34 | 0.00 |
| P/E | 34.2x | 11.2x |
| Forward P/E | 9.2x | 24.8x |
| P/B | 0.9x | 1.3x |
| Dividend yield | 2.0% | 0.5% |