Adecoagro SA (AGRO) is overvalued and Bunge Global SA (BG) is slightly overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. BG is the closer of the two: -13%, against -50% for AGRO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 6.8% values the shares at $7.30; the price of $10.93 is 50% above that value.
Leak Score 0/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $97.33; the price of $110.00 is 13% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 15/100 on 6 of 12 signals
| Metric | AGRO | BG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $10.93 | $110.00 |
| Intrinsic value | $7.30 | $97.33 |
| Margin of safety | -50% | -13% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (3/12) | 15/100 (6/12) |
| Market cap | $1.6B | $21.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.1% | 11.2% |
| Operating margin | 1.9% | 2.2% |
| Net margin | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Return on equity | 3.2% | 7.5% |
| Debt to equity | 1.34 | 1.06 |
| P/E | 34.2x | 21.3x |
| Forward P/E | 9.2x | 9.9x |
| P/B | 0.9x | 1.3x |
| Dividend yield | 2.0% | 2.6% |