AGCO Corp (AGCO) is overvalued and Caterpillar Inc (CAT) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. AGCO is the closer of the two: -42%, against -138% for CAT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $85.17; the price of $120.65 is 42% above that value, and 76% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 11.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $339.81; the price of $808.01 is 138% above that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 65/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | AGCO | CAT |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $120.65 | $808.01 |
| Intrinsic value | $85.17 | $339.81 |
| Margin of safety | -42% | -138% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (3/12) | 65/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $8.4B | $371.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.0% | 10.1% |
| Operating margin | 6.6% | 18.3% |
| Net margin | 5.2% | 14.5% |
| Return on equity | 12.9% | 57.0% |
| Debt to equity | 0.70 | 2.33 |
| P/E | 16.7x | 34.8x |
| Forward P/E | 16.5x | 24.9x |
| P/B | 2.1x | 19.1x |
| Dividend yield | 1.0% | 0.8% |