Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) is fairly valued and PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, PYPL trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +51%, against -3% for AFRM.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $69.53; the price of $71.77 is 3% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 37/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $108.56; the price of $52.89 is 51% below that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 79/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | AFRM | PYPL |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Fairly valued | Undervalued |
| Price | $71.77 | $52.89 |
| Intrinsic value | $69.53 | $108.56 |
| Margin of safety | -3% | +51% |
| Leak Score | 37/100 (8/12) | 79/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $24.2B | $45.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 44.6% | 9.2% |
| Operating margin | 22.1% | 18.9% |
| Net margin | 48.9% | 14.3% |
| Return on equity | 45.1% | 24.5% |
| Debt to equity | 1.79 | 0.72 |
| P/E | 13.0x | 10.0x |
| Forward P/E | 24.8x | 9.1x |
| P/B | 4.4x | 2.3x |
| Dividend yield | — | 0.6% |