Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) is fairly valued and Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. AFRM is the closer of the two: -3%, against -23% for MA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $69.53; the price of $71.77 is 3% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 37/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $451.02; the price of $555.89 is 23% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 70/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | AFRM | MA |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Fairly valued | Overvalued |
| Price | $71.77 | $555.89 |
| Intrinsic value | $69.53 | $451.02 |
| Margin of safety | -3% | -23% |
| Leak Score | 37/100 (8/12) | 70/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $24.2B | $487.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 44.6% | 16.5% |
| Operating margin | 22.1% | 59.2% |
| Net margin | 48.9% | 46.3% |
| Return on equity | 45.1% | 241.5% |
| Debt to equity | 1.79 | 4.39 |
| P/E | 13.0x | 30.6x |
| Forward P/E | 24.8x | 24.1x |
| P/B | 4.4x | 87.0x |
| Dividend yield | — | 0.6% |