Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) is fairly valued and Capital One Financial Corp (COF) is slightly overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. AFRM is the closer of the two: -3%, against -15% for COF.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $69.53; the price of $71.77 is 3% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 37/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Book value at 0.84x, the multiple a 8.9% return on equity justifies, blended with earnings, values the shares at $174.43; the price of $200.55 is 15% above that value.
Leak Score 55/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | AFRM | COF |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Fairly valued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $71.77 | $200.55 |
| Intrinsic value | $69.53 | $174.43 |
| Margin of safety | -3% | -15% |
| Leak Score | 37/100 (8/12) | 55/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $24.2B | $123.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 44.6% | 16.9% |
| Operating margin | 22.1% | 16.6% |
| Net margin | 48.9% | 12.9% |
| Return on equity | 45.1% | 8.9% |
| Debt to equity | 1.79 | 0.40 |
| P/E | 13.0x | 12.4x |
| Forward P/E | 24.8x | 8.4x |
| P/B | 4.4x | 1.1x |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.6% |