Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) is fairly valued and American Express Co (AXP) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. AFRM is the closer of the two: -3%, against -88% for AXP.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $69.53; the price of $71.77 is 3% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 37/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Book value at 2.50x, the multiple a 34.1% return on equity justifies, blended with earnings, values the shares at $162.37; the price of $305.07 is 88% above that value.
Leak Score 75/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | AFRM | AXP |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Fairly valued | Overvalued |
| Price | $71.77 | $305.07 |
| Intrinsic value | $69.53 | $162.37 |
| Margin of safety | -3% | -88% |
| Leak Score | 37/100 (8/12) | 75/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $24.2B | $206.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 44.6% | 16.1% |
| Operating margin | 22.1% | 20.9% |
| Net margin | 48.9% | 13.4% |
| Return on equity | 45.1% | 34.1% |
| Debt to equity | 1.79 | 1.72 |
| P/E | 13.0x | 18.5x |
| Forward P/E | 24.8x | 15.1x |
| P/B | 4.4x | 6.0x |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.3% |