Aercap Holdings NV (AER) is undervalued and Herc Holdings Inc (HRI) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, AER trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +53%, against -68% for HRI.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 6.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $309.00; the price of $144.22 is 53% below that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 54/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $85.55; the price of $144.07 is 68% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | AER | HRI |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $144.22 | $144.07 |
| Intrinsic value | $309.00 | $85.55 |
| Margin of safety | +53% | -68% |
| Leak Score | 54/100 (3/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $22.3B | $4.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 10.9% | 19.7% |
| Operating margin | 49.0% | 13.1% |
| Net margin | 45.0% | 1.0% |
| Return on equity | 18.7% | 2.6% |
| Debt to equity | 2.33 | 5.06 |
| P/E | 7.1x | 98.1x |
| Forward P/E | 7.9x | 13.1x |
| P/B | 1.2x | 2.5x |
| Dividend yield | 1.1% | 2.0% |