ADT Inc (ADT) is undervalued and NAPCO Security Technologies Inc (NSSC) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, ADT trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +52%, against -53% for NSSC.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $13.73; the price of $6.54 is 52% below that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 54/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 11.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $23.41; the price of $35.88 is 53% above that value, and 68% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 76/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | ADT | NSSC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $6.54 | $35.88 |
| Intrinsic value | $13.73 | $23.41 |
| Margin of safety | +52% | -53% |
| Leak Score | 54/100 (3/12) | 76/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $4.8B | $1.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | -0.7% | 12.2% |
| Operating margin | 25.2% | 30.5% |
| Net margin | 11.9% | 21.3% |
| Return on equity | 17.2% | 23.9% |
| Debt to equity | 2.24 | 0.03 |
| P/E | 9.1x | 29.9x |
| Forward P/E | 6.6x | 19.6x |
| P/B | 1.4x | 6.7x |
| Dividend yield | 3.4% | 1.7% |