ADT Inc (ADT) is undervalued and Geo Group Inc (GEO) is slightly overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, ADT trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +52%, against -11% for GEO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $13.73; the price of $6.54 is 52% below that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 54/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $26.84; the price of $29.74 is 11% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 43/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | ADT | GEO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $6.54 | $29.74 |
| Intrinsic value | $13.73 | $26.84 |
| Margin of safety | +52% | -11% |
| Leak Score | 54/100 (3/12) | 43/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $4.8B | $3.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | -0.7% | 2.3% |
| Operating margin | 25.2% | 12.5% |
| Net margin | 11.9% | 10.3% |
| Return on equity | 17.2% | 20.1% |
| Debt to equity | 2.24 | 1.08 |
| P/E | 9.1x | 14.0x |
| Forward P/E | 6.6x | 16.6x |
| P/B | 1.4x | 2.6x |
| Dividend yield | 3.4% | — |