ADT Inc (ADT) is undervalued and CoreCivic Inc (CXW) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, ADT trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +52%, against -39% for CXW.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $13.73; the price of $6.54 is 52% below that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 54/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $22.58; the price of $31.47 is 39% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | ADT | CXW |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $6.54 | $31.47 |
| Intrinsic value | $13.73 | $22.58 |
| Margin of safety | +52% | -39% |
| Leak Score | 54/100 (3/12) | 14/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $4.8B | $3.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | -0.7% | 3.0% |
| Operating margin | 25.2% | 9.9% |
| Net margin | 11.9% | 5.2% |
| Return on equity | 17.2% | 8.8% |
| Debt to equity | 2.24 | 0.94 |
| P/E | 9.1x | 25.1x |
| Forward P/E | 6.6x | 12.9x |
| P/B | 1.4x | 2.2x |
| Dividend yield | 3.4% | — |