Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) is undervalued and Shopify Inc (SHOP) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, ADP trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +44%, against -285% for SHOP.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
A 8.8x revenue multiple, adjusted for growth and margin, values the shares at $484.32; the price of $269.64 is 44% below that value.
Leak Score 95/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 15.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $38.39; the price of $147.74 is 285% above that value, and 59% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | ADP | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $269.64 | $147.74 |
| Intrinsic value | $484.32 | $38.39 |
| Margin of safety | +44% | -285% |
| Leak Score | 95/100 (9/12) | 27/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $107.1B | $190.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.9% | 31.6% |
| Operating margin | 26.4% | 17.8% |
| Net margin | 20.1% | 14.5% |
| Return on equity | 72.2% | 15.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.91 | 0.01 |
| P/E | 24.6x | 99.7x |
| Forward P/E | 20.1x | 59.9x |
| P/B | 17.8x | 15.0x |
| Dividend yield | 2.6% | — |