Archer Daniels Midland Co (ADM) is overvalued and Brasilagro Companhia Brasileira De Propriedade Agricola ADR (LND) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, LND trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +35%, against -182% for ADM.
Values as of the 19 Oct 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $28.56; the price of $80.51 is 182% above that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 47/100 on 11 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $5.69; the price of $3.68 is 35% below that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 47/100 on 11 of 12 signals
| Metric | ADM | LND |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $80.51 | $3.68 |
| Intrinsic value | $28.56 | $5.69 |
| Margin of safety | -182% | +35% |
| Leak Score | 47/100 (11/12) | 47/100 (11/12) |
| Market cap | $38.8B | $367M |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 4.5% | 7.2% |
| Operating margin | 2.5% | -0.4% |
| Net margin | 2.1% | -10.0% |
| Return on equity | 7.7% | -4.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.40 | 0.71 |
| P/E | 22.0x | — |
| Forward P/E | 13.8x | — |
| P/B | 1.6x | 0.9x |
| Dividend yield | 2.6% | 3.8% |