Archer Daniels Midland Co (ADM) is overvalued and Dole plc (DOLE) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, DOLE trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +48%, against -187% for ADM.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $28.71; the price of $82.34 is 187% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.9% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $25.36; the price of $13.20 is 48% below that value.
Leak Score 54/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | ADM | DOLE |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $82.34 | $13.20 |
| Intrinsic value | $28.71 | $25.36 |
| Margin of safety | -187% | +48% |
| Leak Score | 56/100 (9/12) | 54/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $39.7B | $1.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 4.5% | 16.1% |
| Operating margin | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Net margin | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Return on equity | 7.7% | 5.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.40 | 1.09 |
| P/E | 22.5x | 17.0x |
| Forward P/E | 14.1x | 8.8x |
| P/B | 1.7x | 0.9x |
| Dividend yield | 2.6% | 2.6% |